The service contract flywheel is the entire investment thesis. Every elevator installed requires code-mandated annual inspections, twice-yearly maintenance visits, and a continuous relationship with whoever holds the service contract. In most US markets the big four OEMs (Otis, KONE, Schindler, TK Elevator) hold 70-80 percent of the installed base on OEM service contracts. The independent opportunity sits in the remaining 20-30 percent plus every building owner who is one renewal away from switching providers for a 30 percent price reduction.
Then there is the modernization wave. The US has approximately 950,000 passenger elevators in operation. ASME A17.3 code updates have made 1980s-era controllers non-compliant in many jurisdictions, and hydraulic units from the 1990s are approaching end-of-life. A full modernization runs $80,000-$250,000 per unit. Independent operators who can handle both the mechanical retrofit and the controller swap are capturing work that the OEMs often will not quote competitively.
PE has noticed. The space saw record deal activity in 2024-2025, and firms like Arcline (Minnesota Elevator) and Bow River Capital (TK Elevator Americas acquisition partnership) have publicly committed to elevator consolidation theses.