The January 2025 Los Angeles wildfires generated $40 to $41 billion in insured losses from a single event - larger than the entire annual US mitigation services industry. US insured catastrophe losses reached $88 to $103 billion in 2025, the sixth consecutive year above $100 billion globally. Climate Central counted 23 billion-dollar US events in 2025, the third-highest year on record, with the average time between billion-dollar disasters now compressed to ten days. The US averaged three billion-dollar disasters annually in the 1980s. It averaged 19 in the last decade. Restoration revenue is a derivative of this loss machine - and the machine is accelerating.
The economics that matter are not at the headline market level. Water-damage mitigation runs 70 to 80 per cent gross margins because the work is equipment-intensive - dehumidifiers, air movers, thermal imaging - with low direct labor. Mould remediation follows at 40 to 50 per cent. Fire and smoke remediation at 25 to 30 per cent. Reconstruction at 10 to 15 per cent as materials pass through at thin markup. Company-level EBITDA for established full-service firms clusters at 10 to 20 per cent, with top-quartile platforms reaching 20 to 25 per cent - typically those with water-mitigation revenue above 60 per cent of mix and exclusive Direct Repair Program relationships with carriers. Buyers systematically pay more for programmatic, TPA-fed revenue than for CAT-surge revenue. A contractor whose book is 70 per cent preferred-vendor DRP work for State Farm, Allstate, or Travelers - routed through Contractor Connection, Alacrity, or Sedgwick - trades at a material premium because the volume smooths hurricane cycles. A pure CAT chaser with one blockbuster quarter every three years trades at a discount because EBITDA is unhedgeable. This is the single most important valuation lens in the sector.
The consolidation layer has matured rapidly. BELFOR Holdings - American Securities-backed since 2019 - cleared $2.6 billion in 2024 gross sales across 372,296 jobs. Servpro has been Blackstone Core Private Equity's since March 2019. Trivest's HighGround platform was sold to Knox Lane in March 2025 after a 12-times revenue increase over five years through 13 add-on acquisitions. Morgan Stanley Capital Partners acquired American Restoration from Soundcore Capital in July 2024 after an eight-brand rollup. Osceola Capital launched Fortify Restoration in July 2025. The 2020 to 2023 thesis - buy any restoration contractor, layer add-ons, exit at a higher multiple - is narrowing to something more specific: acquire mitigation-heavy platforms with TPA relationships at five to seven times EBITDA, drive to $50 to $100 million revenue via eight to twelve tuck-ins in adjacent markets, exit at seven to ten times. The playbook is validated. The leadership to execute it remains the constraint.