The policy volatility is the entire story. California NEM 3.0 (April 2023) cut export credits by approximately 75 percent for new solar customers, compressing the payback period economics that had driven residential solar adoption for a decade. The IRA (Inflation Reduction Act) extended the 30 percent federal ITC through 2032, creating a long tail of demand. The net effect was a brutal 2023-2024 for installers (Sunnova, Sunrun, Sunpower all traded down 70-90 percent from peak) followed by a 2025 stabilization where platforms with PPA-finance discipline survived and cash-sale installers largely did not.
The market structure has completely reset. Sunrun leads the residential market with over 1 million customers as of mid-2025. The mid-cap PE-backed platforms consolidated - several went through Chapter 11 and emerged smaller. The addressable opportunity is now platforms with genuine PPA-finance fluency, install productivity above $0.50/watt, and attachment rates on storage above 40 percent. Most platforms have none of the three.
The operational complexity is in the PPA math itself. A solar platform that sells cash systems is valued on install revenue and gross margin. A platform that originates PPAs is valued on the installed base RMR and tax equity partner reliability. The valuation differential is enormous - a PPA-fluent platform trades at 2-3 times the multiple of a cash-sale platform with the same install volume. The CFO and FP&A leaders who can model 20-25 year PPA cash flows and tax equity structures are the rarest executives in the sector.